Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday as investors rotated out of chip stocks and into cyclical sectors, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Wednesday’s open.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.57% at 7,511.35, while the June 17 Polymarket contract implied an 78% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday.

Why That Number Matters

Investors are closely watching Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets broadly expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but traders will scrutinize the Fed’s economic projections and commentary for clues on the path of monetary policy in the second half of the year.

At the same time, easing Middle East tensions continue to support sentiment after the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Bull Case

Optimism around lower energy prices and resilient economic growth has strengthened the case for equities.

Investors are also looking ahead to May retail sales and pending home sales data, while CarMax (NYSE:KMX) is set to report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell.

S&P 500 futures were modestly higher early Wednesday, rising 0.28%.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,548.78, below Monday’s close of 7,554.29, meaning the June 16 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.” The contract recorded approximately $133,752 in traded volume before settling.

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