Polymarket

Traders are leaning toward the possibility that Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, will avoid prison time. What Happened: Polymarket prediction market data shows a 45% chance that Ellison will receive no prison time, with $153,679 bet on this outcome. Traders are currently betting 49...

Former president Donald Trump, once leading in the polls, now finds himself trailing by 4 points after a 9-point swing in the election odds over the past 9 days. What Happened: The reversal comes as the race for the 2024 U.S. presidential election intensifies, with Trump losing ground after earlier...

A Polymarket trader, going by the alias YatSen, has placed three different bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, guaranteeing themselves a $500,000 profit. What Happened: The trader is currently trading in the green on all his bets with the highest (+78.5%) gains on a 25-basis point...

"Saturday Night Live" kicks off its 50th anniversary season on Sept. 28. While the host and musical guest have not been announced, crypto bettors are placing wagers on whether Vice President Kamala Harris will make an appearance during one of the show’s skits involving the 2024 presidential...

Following Taylor Swift's endorsement last week, Vice President Kamala Harris is the slight odds favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. What Happened: Polymarket data shows Harris’s chances at 50.2%, compared to Donald Trump’s 48.2%. Over $935 million have been traded. Harris...

A Polymarket trader, going by the alias BasedBoi, has placed a $200,000 bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in its much-anticipated Sep. 18 meeting. What Happened: The trader down over $100,000 on his bet, which, if successful, would yield a $6.5 million payout. The...

Donald Trump‘s deliberations that he may visit Springfield, Ohio in the near future are the most recent matter of speculation on prediction market platform Polymarket. What Happened: The chances of the former President visiting Springfield in September spiked from 8% on Friday to 50% on...

Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci predicts more GOP officials breaking away from former President Donald Trump, with a prediction market showing Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah) may endorse Vice President Kamala Harris. What Happened: The market shows a 42% chance as of Sep...

Financial markets have abruptly shifted expectations, now pricing in a significant chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September 2024 meeting. What Happened: This marks a stark departure from recent projections. Polymarket data shows the probability of a 50+...

The odds of Donald Trump launching a coin before the November election skyrocketed on prediction platform Polymarket after the former president announced the launch date of his upcoming cryptocurrency project. What happened: Bets in favor of the token launch ballooned from 40% 24 hours earlier to...

As the presidential debate on Sept. 10 between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris was likely the last between the two candidates, voters are turning their attention to a debate between the presidential candidates’ running mates ahead of the 2024 presidential election. What Happened...

Voters should not expect another debate between Ex-President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. What Happened: Multiple media outlets — CNN, the Washington Post, the New York Post — reported that most voters felt Harris defeated Trump in Tuesday night's matchup in Philadelphia...

The presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Ex-President Donald Trump shifted the betting odds for the winner on Election Day. Here’s a look at who has the edge and how the markets have shifted in recent months. What Happened: Harris has been performing well in recent...

Donald Trump‘s viral claim that Haitian immigrants are “eating cats” was one of several long-shot events that political traders successfully predicted to happen at Tuesday’s presidential debate. What Happened: The claim, which Trump made in response to Vice President Kamala...

Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have gained an edge over former President Donald Trump following their first presidential debate on Tuesday, according to prediction markets and initial polling data. What Happened: Prediction market platform Polymarket shows bettors strongly favoring Harris...