Why Is Kohl's Stock Surging Tuesday?

Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE:KSS) shares are trading higher Tuesday. The surge follows news regarding massive federal tariff refunds. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection launched its claims portal, CAPE, on Monday.

This portal allows importers to recover funds after a February Supreme Court ruling. The court deemed previous emergency tariffs illegal.

Citi Projects Massive Payday

Analysts are eyeing a meaningful balance sheet boost. In an April 10 note cited by CNBC, Citi estimates Kohl’s could receive roughly $550 million in refunds. Larger peers, including Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT), are expected to recover even bigger sums.

Refunds aren’t factored into forecasts but could deliver a one-time cash boost, potentially funding buybacks, debt reduction, or balance sheet strengthening.

Technical Analysis

Kohl’s is in the middle of its 52-week range ($6.08 to $25.22), which fits a stock still trying to rebuild a trend after a volatile year. It’s trading 18.4% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) but 12% below its 100-day SMA, a split that points to short-term strength while the intermediate trend still needs repair.

The moving average structure is still a headwind: the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA, and the death cross in April (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA) keeps the longer-term trend “guilty until proven innocent.”

At the same time, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, is above its signal line, which leans toward improving upside pressure versus the prior downtrend.

Over the last 12 months, the stock is up 124.22%, which shows buyers have been willing to step in aggressively on dips even with choppy retail sentiment. The key near-term question is whether price can reclaim the $17.00 area (overhead supply) after breaking below support in March.

• Key Resistance: $17.00 — a level where prior rallies have tended to stall.
• Key Support: $15.00 — an area where buyers have recently defended pullbacks.

KSS Price Action: Kohl’s shares were up 8.28% at $15.82 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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